Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 39.968196 43.482275 47.378181 52.061832 57.600808 64.023317 72.157934
2025-08-03 34.870619 39.401371 44.781990 51.790540 60.918946 72.790238 90.140060
2025-08-10 31.409323 36.311733 42.386999 50.725505 62.339529 78.801164 105.896426
2025-08-17 28.864769 33.916611 40.372573 49.587562 63.114375 83.708619 121.457337
2025-08-24 26.989641 32.131320 38.869179 48.808120 64.080499 88.907683 139.549633
2025-08-31 25.429550 30.595256 37.504522 47.979707 64.722424 93.596186 158.961215
2025-09-07 24.733775 30.137644 37.547170 49.170240 68.711221 105.211770 201.696197
2025-09-14 23.673837 29.090353 36.642173 48.769031 69.901294 111.797346 237.725587
2025-09-21 22.541054 27.863886 35.373708 47.638815 69.586062 115.135416 267.613846
2025-09-28 21.496677 26.701305 34.115615 46.394475 68.859759 117.365470 296.919725
2025-10-05 21.318070 26.757038 34.669985 48.185313 74.195009 135.920606 437.042513
2025-10-12 20.974994 26.547746 34.794792 49.245180 78.285039 153.426151 655.605950
2025-10-19 20.551381 26.216194 34.735496 50.034121 82.128532 173.134071 1119.513755
2025-10-26 19.939926 25.573587 34.140955 49.793921 83.666979 186.694582 1917.737344
2025-11-02 19.226888 24.743123 33.191412 48.798697 83.264744 193.232420 3145.272865
2025-11-09 18.552960 23.943490 32.248087 47.733431 82.526367 198.314293 5973.317267
2025-11-16 17.989894 23.290667 31.511388 47.003086 82.508889 206.740281 31011.410826
2025-11-23 17.455624 22.661372 30.781551 46.226267 82.255709 214.276340 NaN
2025-11-30 17.296863 22.605291 31.002689 47.342464 87.190884 252.383586 NaN
2025-12-07 16.888463 22.141588 30.507481 46.966445 87.999904 269.650030 NaN
2025-12-14 16.388171 21.516464 29.708437 45.906430 86.701736 273.055736 NaN
2025-12-21 15.895284 20.888906 28.881670 44.738070 84.942392 272.525750 NaN
2025-12-28 15.892046 21.035967 29.397284 46.419124 91.961580 346.961859 NaN